考研英语阅读命题思路透析和真题揭秘(57)

When it comes to the slowing economy, Ellen Spero isn't biting her nails just yet. But the 47-year-old manicurist isn't cutting, filing or polishing as many nails as she'd like to. Most of her clients spend $12 to $50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. "I'm a good economic indicator," she says. "I provide a service that people can do without when they're concerned about saving some dollars." So Spero is downscaling, shopping at a middle-brow Dillard's department store near her suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Marcus. "I don't know if other clients are going to abandon me, too." she says.

Even before Alan Greenspan's admission that America's red-hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves. From car dealerships to Gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper their spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of their revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year's pace. But don't sound any alarms just yet. Consumers seem only mildly concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy's long-term prospects, even as they do some modest belt-tightening.

Consumers say they're not in despair because, despite the dreadful headlines, their own fortunes still feel pretty good. Home prices are holding steady in most regions. In Manhattan, "there's a new gold rush happening in the $4 million to $10 million range, predominantly fed by Wall Street bonuses," says broker Barbara Corcoran. In San Francisco, prices are still rising even as frenzied overbidding quiets. "Instead of 20 to 30 offers, now maybe you only get two or three," says John Deadly, a Bay Area real-estate broker. And most folks still feel pretty comfortable about their ability to find and keep a job.

Many folks see silver linings to this slowdown. Potential home buyers would cheer for lower interest rates. Employers wouldn't mind a little fewer bubbles in the job market. Many consumers seem to have been influenced by stock-market swings, which investors now view as a necessary ingredient to a sustained boom. Diners might see an upside, too. Getting a table at Manhattan's hot new Alain Ducasse restaurant used to be impossible. Not anymore. For that, Greenspan & Co. may still be worth toasting.

说起经济下滑，Ellen Spero并没有束手无策。但是这位47岁的指甲修剪师每天的修甲、美甲业务不如她期望的那么多了。她大多数的顾客每周消费12到50美元，但是上个月两个老顾客突然就不来了。Spero认为这都是经济疲软惹的祸。"我是个很好的经济指示表"，她说，"我所提供的服务是那种人们想省钱时就可以免去德服务"。Spero正在缩减开支，她只在自己居住的克里夫兰郊区的中档百货商店Dillard购物，而不再去Neiman Marcus购物。"我不知道其他顾客是不是也会抛弃我。"她说。

即使在格林斯番承认美国曾经火热的经济已开始降温之前，许多上班族都已经觉察到了经济疲软的迹象。从汽车销售商到Gap服饰专卖店，其销售额由于顾客开支的减少，几个月来一直在下滑。零售业去年在感恩节和圣诞节之间的收入占全年收入的24%，而今年他们的关键时刻又到来了。专家们说，假日销售和去年比已经降了7%。但是现在还不需要敲响警钟。消费者们似乎只是稍有忧虑，他们并没有开始恐慌，许多人说他们对经济的长远发展还是很乐观的，虽然他们已经勒起了裤腰带。

消费者说他们并没有陷入绝望，因为虽然报纸上的大标题看来让人沮丧，他们感觉自己的运气并没有什么损失。在大多数地区房地产价格仍很稳定。在曼哈顿，"四百万到一千万之间的房子非常抢手，主要是因为华尔街的分红"，房产经纪人Barbara Corcoran说。在旧金山，尽管疯狂的叫价已逐渐平息，但房价仍在攀升。"以前总是有20到30个来叫价的，而现在只有两三个"，海滨地区的一位房产经纪人John·Tealdi说。大多数人感觉还不错、对自己有能力找到并保住一份工作感到相当有把握。

许多人在这次经济萧条中仍能看到一线希望。想买房子的人会为低利率而高兴。老板们不会在意就业市场上少几个泡沫。许多消费者似乎受到了股市波动的影响，但投资者将此看作是持续增长的必要条件。就餐的人也能得到好处。过去能在曼哈顿时髦的新艾伦杜可斯饭店得张桌子是不可能的，现在情况就不一样了。因此，格林斯番和各大公司还是可以举杯庆祝一下的。