英语双语时文阅读:黄金失去光泽
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Short View: Gold's Dimmed Glow
黄金失去光泽?
By Javier Blas 2008-11-14
英国《金融时报》"短线观点"专栏作者哈维尔·布拉斯(Javier Blas) 2008-11-14
Gold shines during crises, as any self-respecting gold bug will tell you. But, in this crisis, bullion is not doing as well as some of its fervent supporters predicted. The price in London yesterday dropped to less than $710 per troy ounce, down 5 per cent since the September collapse of Lehman Brothers.
任何有自尊的黄金爱好者都会告诉你,黄金会在危机中闪光。然而,在此次金融危机中,黄金的表现并不像那些坚定的黄金支持者所预测的那样好。伦敦黄金价格昨日跌破每盎司710美元,自雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)9月破产以来,金价已累计下跌5%。
In the past month - despite policymakers dubbing the crisis the worst since the 1930s' Depression - gold has shed 15 per cent of its value.
尽管决策者认为此次危机为上世纪30年代大萧条以来最糟糕的一次,但黄金价值在过去一个月中已跌去15%。
Gold bugs are deeply disappointed. Some spout conspiracy theories to explain why the precious metal is not trading well above $1,000 an ounce. Central bank selling is mentioned, although without proof. In fact, the opposite is the case: central banks are selling less and also lending far less.
Gold's dimmed glow is linked to the rebound in the dollar - particularly against the euro but also against the currencies of big consumers such as India. It is also linked to the oil price collapse, which has reduced inflation worries, and to lower demand for jewellery as higher prices earlier this year - gold hit a record high of $1,030.80 in March - and rising unemployment have cut consumer appetite.
黄金之所以失去光泽,与美元反弹有关,尤其是美元兑欧元汇率,但也包括美元兑印度等黄金消费大国货币的汇率。它还与油价暴跌(这减轻了通胀忧虑)和黄金需求下降有关,今年早些时候黄金价格上涨--今年3 月曾达到1030.80美元的创纪录高位--以及失业率不断上升都降低了消费者对黄金的兴趣。
Also, investors are liquidating their commodities indices and baskets, in which the precious metal has a large presence. As they sell oil, copper and wheat, they also dispose of gold.
此外,投资者正在变现自己的大宗商品指数和篮子,其中黄金占据很大比例。在他们抛售石油、铜和小麦的同时,他们也卖出了黄金。
In fairness, bullion is not doing so badly: if the investment case is wealth preservation, rather than stellar returns, it has delivered. Since the financial crisis began in August 2007, gold prices are up 7 per cent. That contrasts with losses of more than 40 per cent for the S&P 500 index. The situation looks even better in Europe. In sterling terms, gold has risen 46 per cent since last August and, in euros, 17 per cent. Good news for Europe-based gold bugs but not so good for their US counterparts.
公平而言,黄金的表现并非那么糟糕:如果你的投资理由是财富保值,而非巨额回报,那么黄金已经让你达到了目的。自2007年8月此次金融危机爆发以来,黄金价格已上涨7%。而标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)已下跌逾40%。欧洲的情况看上去更好一些。以英镑计算,自去年8月以来,黄金价格已上涨46%,以欧元计算,金价涨幅为17%。对于欧洲的黄金投资者而言,这是个好消息,但对于美国的黄金投资者而言就没有这么好了。
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