英文报刊翻译之中国向全球“出口”滞胀？

来源：沪江论坛 | 时间：2008-06-22 | 作者：patricia4402 | 阅读：1170 次 | [大中小] [收藏] [划词 ]

Stagflation, the latest Asian export
By Stephen Roach
Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Fears of 1970s-style stagflation are back in the air. Global bond markets are growing ever more nervous over this possibility, and US and European central bankers are talking increasingly tough about the perils of mounting inflation.

对于20世纪70年代那种滞胀的担忧再度出现。全球债券市场对于这种可能性感到越来越焦虑，同时在谈及通胀不断抬头的风险时，欧美央行官员们的措辞也越来越强硬。

Yet today's stagflation risks are very different from those that wreaked such havoc 35 years ago. Unlike in that earlier period, wages in the developed economies have been delinked from prices. That all but eliminates the automatic indexation features of the once dreaded wage-price spiral - perhaps the most insidious feature of the "great inflation" of the 1970s. Moreover, as the stunning surge of the US unemployment rate in May suggests, slowing economic growth in the industrial economies is likely to open up further slack in labour markets, thereby putting downward cyclical pressure on wages over the next couple of years.

But there is a new threat to global inflation that was not present in the 1970s. It is arising from the developing world, especially in Asia, where price pressures are lurching out of control. For developing Asia as a whole, consumer price index inflation hit 7.5 per cent in April 2008, close to a 9?-year high and more than double the 3.6 per cent pace of a year ago. Sure, a good portion of the recent acceleration in pricing is a result of food and energy - critically important components of household budgets in poorer countries and yet items that many analysts mistakenly remove to get a cleaner read on underlying inflation. But even the residual, or "core", inflation rate in developing Asia surged to 3.8 per cent in April, more than double the 1.8 per cent pace of a year ago.

但目前全球通胀面临着一个新威胁，这种威胁在20世纪70年代不曾存在。它源自于发展中国家，特别是价格压力已近失控的亚洲地区。总体而言，在发展中亚洲地区，2008年4月的消费者价格指数(CPI)为7.5%，接近9年半以来的最高水平，较上年同期的3.6%升逾一倍。的确，近期价格加速上升很大程度上归因于食品和能源--它们是较为贫穷国家家庭预算中至关重要的组成部分，也是许多分析师为了便于解读基础通胀而错误移除的项目。但在发展中亚洲地区，即便是剩下的所谓"核心"通胀率，4月份也升至3.8%，为去年同期1.8%的两倍以上。

Given Asia's new-found role as the world's producer, such an outbreak of surging inflation in this region is not without serious risks to the global economy. The globalisation of trade flows is a new transmission mechanism of worldwide inflation that was not evident in the 1970s. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, overall exports should hit a record 32.5 per cent of world gross domestic product in 2008, more than 50 per cent above the export share of 21 per cent prevailing in 1980, when the "great inflation" was nearing its peak.

考虑到亚洲新近获得的全球制造者角色，该地区通胀疾升的爆发，可能给全球经济造成严重的风险。贸易流动的全球化是全球范围通胀一种新的传导机制，在20世纪70年代尚不明显。据国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，2008年总出口在全球国内生产总值(GDP)中所占比例应达到创纪录的32.5%，相比于1980年"大通胀"接近巅峰时，出口普遍所占的21%的比例要高出逾50%。

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